CONTRA LOS DINOSAURIOS

Copio a continuación una muy esclarecedora carta de Jaime de Althaus, donde dicho colega pone muy didácticamente en su sitio al sociólogo rojicaviar Francisco Durand, uno de los corifeos del grupo de los "Católica Boys" (Félix Ovidio Jiménez, Campodónico, etc.), los obsoletos oráculos de La República (a los que se les unen los ahora marxistas-humalistas Beto Adrianzén, "Cochebomba" Lynch y Sinesio López) para los cuales no se ha hecho nada bueno en la economía del Perú en los últimos 20 años y que siguen con los vetustos argumentos de la "reprimarización" de nuestra economía, el estatismo, el proteccionismo, el cierre a la inversión extranjera y la nostalgia por el velasquismo, que ahora ven reencarnado con alegría en su adorado humalismo. Es increíble cómo esta gente no cambia..."

Señor Director: En su réplica a mi crítica, Francisco Durand repite que hay una tendencia a la 'desnacionalización' que tiene graves consecuencias. Pero en una economía abierta es lógico que una cierta proporción de las empresas grandes sean extranjeras.

Eso no es malo. Es bueno. Trae capital y tecnología a un país descapitalizado por las políticas nacionalizadoras y populistas que el Sr. Durand pareciera defender.

Lo importante, lo novedoso, es que desde 1990 el capital nacional se está reconstruyendo y por primera vez en la historia han emergido nuevos grupos económicos nacionales de origen popular que, además, se están convirtiendo en las primeras transnacionales peruanas junto a otros grupos que también se internacionalizan.

Durand lo acepta pero desvaloriza su importancia señalando que son jugadores pequeños o medianos en Sudamérica. Oiga, pero si su internacionalización ha comenzado hace pocos años. Si el Perú hubiese abierto su economía hace 40 años como Chile y no hace sólo 20, esos grupos serían mucho más grandes y Oeschle, Monterrey o Tía estarían en Santiago en lugar de Ripley y Falabella acá.Durand añade que a esos grupos emergentes igual los compran, como al grupo Wong. No es así. El grupo Wong no ha sido comprado. Ha vendido un negocio pero con esa plata ha realizado nuevas inversiones y se ha diversificado. Ha crecido, no ha desaparecido.

Argumenta que esos grupos y las multinacionales crecen porque reciben favores, exoneraciones tributarias y rentas indebidas en arreglos con el poder. Si aportara las pruebas, me sumo a la denuncia. El hecho contante y sonante es que nunca como ahora ha sido el impuesto a la renta tan alto como porcentaje. Ha pasado de menos de un 20% de los ingresos tributarios en los 80 a un 42% el 2008.

¡El Estado 'liberal' hace pagar mucho más impuestos a las grandes empresas! ¡Y por eso pudo subir, por ej., el sueldo a los maestros, que durante los 70 y 80 se había encogido! Acepta que las exportaciones no tradicionales han crecido espectacularmente en estos 20 años, pero anota que en el PBI predominan las materias primas de siempre. Claro, pero lo que importa es la tendencia.

Y no es cierto que las manufacturas que se exportan son las que surgieron con las políticas proteccionistas: esas tendieron a desaparecer, por ineficientes.Relativiza la 'revolución del microcrédito' diciendo que entre garantías, 19% de IGV, impuesto a la renta y tasas de interés, esos microempresarios casi no ganan nada ni crecen. Aparentemente ignora que para la mayor parte de esos créditos no se pide garantía; que muchos de los prestatarios son informales, y los formales restan el IGV que pagan cuando compran, de modo que casi anulan el 19%. Y que las tasas de interés se han reducido a la tercera parte en los últimos 14 años (Webb, El Árbol de la Mostaza, p. 22 ). Un fenómeno extraordinario de inclusión económica".

Por Aldo Mareategui

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